This week’s links: 3/3/19

WeWork’s evolving business model – Fast Company

The Ethical Dilemma about Working at a Tech Startup – The Ringer

  • “There’s a lot of personal guilt around pursuing CS. If you do that, people call you a sellout or you might view yourself as a sellout. If you take a high-paying job, people might say, ‘Oh, you’re just going to work for a big tech company. All you care about is yourself.”

Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb

  • Taleb: imagine a successful investor who earns an average of 15%/year in excess of t-bills with 10% error rate per year (where 68% of outcomes will fall between +/- 10% of the 15% excess return). Correspondingly, 95% of outcomes will therefore fall between -5% and 35% return relative to t-bills, an excellent prospect. What does this imply about expected returns over time? 93% likelihood of positive returns over a year, but only 54% likelihood of positive returns over any particular day. If tracking each minute over the 8-hour market window, the investor will have 241 pleasurable minutes, and 239 displeasurable minutes, which tend to weigh more heavily in our minds. The lesson: lower frequency of observation is associated with a higher signal to noise ratio.
  • You don’t need to, and maybe shouldn’t, seek rationality in all areas of your life. It’s useful to create guardrails for your own sustainable survival, but allow yourself the freedom to let your emotional dispositions guide your day to day.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s